It’s the start of a new year, and that means a new edition of AAM’s annual forecasting report.  While it is the culmination of months of work (shout out to the commenters and guest essayists who enriched the content) it is also the beginning of a year-long journey of exploration. (At the end of this essay I’ll tell you how you can join this expedition.)

This year’s theme is “questioning assumptions,” reflecting the profound uncertainty characterizing the world. Physical laws (gravity, thermodynamics, conservation of momentum) are holding firm so far, but the conventions that traditionally constrained society, government, economics, and technology seem to be dissolving.  This has profound consequences for our country and for our sector. Museums can no longer assume, for example, that:

• A new generation of donors will give in the same way and to the same causes as their parents and grandparents
• There’s a large cadre of museum people who are willing and ready to climb the career ladder to become managers, leaders, and directors.
• There is broad, nonpartisan support for the nonprofit sector, and for nonprofit status not being dependent on an organization’s mission or legal activities.

This degree of uncertainty is deeply unsettling. But I also believe that each of these challenges presents museums with the opportunity to reexamine outmoded assumptions and discover better ways to do our work. In the coming year, guest authors and speakers will help me explore how and why museums can:

• Prioritize broad community support and the cultivation of broad support from a large base of small donors.
• Identify “toxic funding” that may solve short term needs but cause long-term harm to a museum’s mission and vision.
• Create pathways for advancement that help staff advance in meaningful and satisfying ways.
• Engage in succession planning for the director and key positions.
• Improve how we communicate to the public about what it means to be a nonprofit, the benefits museums provide to society, and why we are deserving of private and public support.

Join me in this journey of discovery by:

• Following the latest posts on the CFM Blog
• Visit the new Dispatches from the Future of Museums page each week for new stories related to these and other trends.
• Check the AAM calendar of events for CFM webinars and Future Chats
• Join the Future of Museums Community on Museum Junction
• Reach out through Alliance Advisors and Speakers Bureau to request a keynote, panel, or workshop to help your staff or conference attendees engage with these challenges.

Where to find TrendsWatch

Members receive the report as the Jan/Feb issue of Museum magazine and can read digital copy online. Nonmembers can access the president’s column and one free feature online, and we will make a PDF version of the report available for download later this spring. I hope you can join me on Thursday, January 22 from 3 – 4 pm ET for a webinar in which I’ll provide a tour of the report, along with breaking news on developments since it went to press last year. (The webinar is free and you can register here.)

Yours from the future,

Elizabeth Merritt

Vice President, Strategic Foresight and Founding Director, Center for the Future of Museums, American Alliance of Museums.